Achieving $3.6 billion in revenue from EV sales in India by 2030: A roadmap for Tesla

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s much-anticipated visit to India has sparked excitement among Tesla enthusiasts in the country. Musk is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi later this month to announce key investments in the electric vehicle (EV) space, potentially generating $3.6 billion in revenue by 2030, according to industry experts.

The Indian market holds promise for Musk, with PM Modi successfully persuading him to consider establishing a Tesla plant and global supply chain in the country. Senior analyst Soumen Mandal from Counterpoint Research highlighted potential announcements such as duty cuts on imported Tesla cars, setting up sales and service operations, and even local manufacturing facilities.

Describing India as a significant market for Tesla in the long term, Mandal predicted that electric cars priced at $25,000 and above could capture a 15% market share by 2030. With the current EV penetration at 2.3%, the industry is poised to grow substantially, reaching 28% penetration by 2023.

Furthermore, experts believe that India could emerge as a manufacturing hub for affordable EVs, with opportunities for exports to other nations. Tesla’s focus on establishing a charging infrastructure network akin to the North American Charging Standard could further boost the EV ecosystem in the country.

Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, highlighted government initiatives such as the production-linked incentive scheme and reduced import duties on EVs as key drivers for the growth of the EV landscape in India. The industry is expected to witness a compound annual growth rate of 52% for EVs between 2024-2030, aligning with Musk’s vision for the country.

The presence of Tesla in India is expected to not only accelerate EV adoption but also catalyze the establishment of local supply chain ecosystems. This development underscores India’s trajectory towards becoming a significant player in the global EV market, as emphasized by industry experts.


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