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Why scientists are changing their minds and disagreeing during the coronavirus pandemic

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Why scientists are changing their minds and disagreeing during the coronavirus pandemic

 

US Surgeon General Jerome Adams holds a face mask during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House on April 22, 2021, in Washington, DC.

MANDEL NGAN

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If you’ve tuned into the daily news cycle during the coronavirus pandemic, you’ve probably noticed circumstances where scientists seemed reluctant to share information, debated the latest research on social media or downright changed their views.

In our culture, we often hold politicians, corporate executives and other leaders accountable for the consistency of their positions. In political debates, candidates will often point out on the debate stage that a rival swung to the left or right over a controversial issue. It suggests a lack of authenticity, or even careerism, and indicates that they can’t be trusted to do what’s right for their constituents.

In the scientific world, it’s expected that even the highest-ranking academics will evolve their thinking — and many have done so during this Covid-19 pandemic.

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But some scientists fear that the public doesn’t understand this, and is losing faith in scientists who change their minds. And that’s having real consequences on the front lines.

Changing minds on face masks

Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency physician who works at the Rhode Island Hospital, said some patients are coming into her emergency department refusing to wear masks. When she prompted them to wear one, they often told her that public health authorities like the World Health Organization and the CDC initially advised against wearing masks, saying there was little evidence that it would help prevent people from getting sick.

That recommendation later changed, as studies began to show evidence that people with no symptoms might be spreading the disease. Now, both organizations encourage all people in public to wear masks, including cloth-based coverings, to prevent the disease from spreading — exactly what citizens in some countries, like Hong Kong and Japan, had guessed during the early days of the pandemic based on past experiences.

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But as Ranney pointed out in an interview with CNBC, it’s “part of the process” that leading public health authorities would adapt their thinking based on new information.

Carl Bergstrom, a biology professor of the University of Washington and an author of a book about misinformation, explained that very little was known about the virus back in January and February. So infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists had to do their best without much data at their fingertips.

Even today, notes Dr. Bergstrom, there isn’t always a clear answer on important metrics like the case fatality rate (Dr. Bergstrom provided a range, when asked about that, and not an exact percentage). Sometimes the only response is “it depends,” or the even less satisfying “we’re still figuring that out.” That can be difficult to hear when the public is searching for answers, and policymakers are looking for clear advice to pass on to their constituents.

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“When you take a completely novel virus, you are starting out from a position of by default knowing nothing,” Dr. Bergstrom explained. “You can at best make guesses based on what you know about previous coronaviruses and prior outbreaks of other respiratory viruses.”

As a pandemic progresses, scientists will get more data as more cases occur. “That gives us more time to do basic investigation into the molecular biology of the virus and the interaction between the virus and host,” he explained. “You get more opportunity to watch how transmission works. And you come up with new conclusions based on more evidence, and then you make those public because it’s the best of what you know.”

Others in the community say that it’s even a badge of honor for a scientist to update their thinking when confronted with new evidence. Vinay Prasad, a hematologist-oncologist and Associate Professor of Medicine at the University of California San Francisco, said that best scientists are “continually re-evaluating themselves to see what we got right and what we got wrong.”

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As he put it: “It’s a high mark to be able to say, ‘I’m going to change my mind’.”

Peer review in public

With the situation moving so quickly, scientists are rushing to publish papers before they’re peer-reviewed. Those papers are increasingly getting picked apart on social media by communities of their peers — a process that previously would have happened behind closed doors.

The so-called “preprint servers” like bioRxiv and medRxiv feature research that is disseminated far more rapidly than the usual peer-review process, which can take weeks or months. Consumers are now witness to these discussions and occasional fiery disagreements.

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One particularly noteworthy debate during this pandemic concerned a group of academics, including Dr. John Ioannides, at Stanford University, who have consistently argued there’s a lack of evidence to support shelter-in-place orders. That same group published research via one of these preprint servers indicating that the virus might be more prevalent than initially believed, and therefore potentially less deadly.

It was pilloried by other scientists on Twitter and other social media platforms and picked apart for the problematic methodologies.

“These discussions used to take place over email or by phone,” Bergstrom said. “Sometimes there are just different groups working on the same problem, but with a different hypothesis or a different theoretical framework,” he added. “So if you see scientists arguing, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone is a bad actor.”

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Prasad believes that scientists are right to point out flaws in data or methodology, particularly if the paper has been published in a preprint server or the conclusions that the public are jumping to might be dangerous. But he takes exception with the personal attacks he’s seen on social media.

For consumers without scientific training, he notes, it can be extremely challenging to determine the true experts in a field, especially when a person’s credentials appear to be solid. He suggests looking a researcher’s publication history, but recognizes that not everyone has time to do that.

If you spot scientists disagreeing, he notes, recognize that it’s somewhat normal — especially given that the stakes are so high right now.

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“The more eyeballs on the paper, the more likely it is to get critiqued,” he said. “Because of Covid-19, someone has turned up speed on factory line and it’s not pretty sometimes.”

“Science is under pressure and you’re seeing how the sausage is made,” agreed Bergstrom.

Mistakes made

When the worst of the crisis is over, there will certainly be an opportunity to look back and reflect on some of the mistakes that were made along the way.

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Dr. Prasad said that the scientific community will likely engage in a process of its own to do just that.

“When the dust settles and we’re a couple of years out, I think it will be a useful exercise to evaluate what we got right. Were they the best policy decisions for the evidence that was available at the time? I don’t think you get off the hook for views that are totally wrong,” he said.

Timothy Caulfield, the Canadian professor of law at the University of Alberta, differentiates between cases where a scientist changes their mind based on new data, and circumstances where someone misrepresented their work, or falsified data.

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If it’s an inadvertent error, he explained, the research should be retracted with an explanation of the issue, and that should be recirculated to the public. “With so much pressure to move quickly, mistakes seem likely to happen — particularly in preprints. So the scientific community and the media need to take great care in how all of this is reported,” he said.

Caulfield notes that policy-decisions are changing, but that doesn’t mean that public health shouldn’t be trusted.

He describes the the policy around masks specifically as a “profound communication challenge.”

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“Public health sometimes need to adopt positions, even if the evidence isn’t robust,” he said. “And from a policy perspective, those positions need to be championed.”

“But that doesn’t mean that the scientific community should stop talking about the evidence,” he added. “You don’t want to discourage open, honest debate.”

 

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(Note: This is a Article Automatically Generated Through Syndication, Here is The Original Source

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New Class-Action Lawsuit Accuses Rivian of Making Materially False and Misleading Statements

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New Class-Action Lawsuit Accuses Rivian of Making Materially False and Misleading Statements

Electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian has been slapped with a lawsuit which alleged that the company misled the investors with false claims regarding its business, operations and prospects.

The class-action lawsuit made a number of allegations which included overstating the demand of its Electric vehicles and also not making it clear how it will handle the negative and near-term macroeconomic impacts.

The lawsuit also revealed that Rivian’s business was experiencing reduced demands as well as increased customer cancellations precipitated by inter alia, high interest rates.

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The orders had significantly reduced and this has significantly reduced the profits and the manufacturing of vehicles in 2024.

Rivian Faces New Class-Action Lawsuit Alleging Deceptive Statements

The lawsuit also alleged that the Company’s public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times.

Rivian’s stock, like all other EV startups, has been tanking and this has angered the investors who saw a major portion of their investments eroded and a number of law firms like Bernstein Liebhard LLP announced this week that it has filed a securities class action lawsuit on investors’ behalf.

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The lawsuit stated that the EV manufacturer had violated the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and has asked investors who had bought shares of Rivian Automotive, Inc. between March 1, 2023, and February 21, 2024, to join its suit.

The company’s stocks have fallen and one of the primary reasons was the high interest rates. Rivian’s products are beyond the reach of an average income household.

Also Read: Prime Hydration Faces Lawsuits Claiming Its Sports Drink, Prime Energy, Contains PFAS and Excessive Caffeine

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The Rivian’s Electric vehicles target customers were wealthier clients and the spurt in order cancellations means this class is walking away from Rivian’s product.

The stocks of the company were popular for the investors but the reduced demands caused by higher borrowing cost have hit its stock prices badly.

The price war has also affected the EV sector and the company also with its competitors like Tesla has been uniformly affected.

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The EV sector marked value has tanked by more than 57% year-to-date.

The chance of a fall in interest rates is not expected since the Federal Reserve will not lower the benchmark interest rate since it could lead to a bout of hyperinflation.

Also another factor which will discourage the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is the soaring energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.

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Also Read: Lawsuit Claims Kennywood Concealed Steel Curtain Closure to Boost Sales

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Lawsuit Claims Kennywood Concealed Steel Curtain Closure to Boost Sales

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Lawsuit Claims Kennywood Concealed Steel Curtain Closure to Boost Sales

Kennywood’s Steel Curtain roller coaster will not be available this 2024 season, and this has miffed a Kensington man to the extent that he has filed a lawsuit against Kennywood and its parent companies, alleging that the officials had known this fact long before but withheld it to boost season pass sales.

Lawsuit Against Kennywood

The lawsuit, filed in the Allegheny County Common Pleas Court by Joshua Miller and his attorney, John A. Biedrzycki III on Monday, alleges that it was a deliberate attempt to hide the fact to accrue financial benefits by boosting season pass sales.

The lawsuit alleges that Kennywood has created advertising campaigns targeting consumers like Mr. Miller and others to purchase the 2024 season pass under the belief that the benefits included myriad park attractions, including the Steel Curtain.

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In the lawsuit, it was revealed that Mr. Miller bought his season pass under the assumption that all rides would be operational.

However, on April 17, three days before the park opened for the season, it was revealed that Steel Curtain would be closed for the season.

The announcement was made by Ricky Spicuzza, the park’s assistant general manager, and the reason for the closure was cited as the coaster undergoing an “extensive modification project.”

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Ricky Spicuzza said,

“We understand the frustration many of you have felt not being able to experience the Steel Curtain. On behalf of our entire team, we absolutely share that frustration with you.”

However, the lawsuit contends that the fact was known long before last week that the 220-foot-tall coaster would be out of commission.

The lawsuit states,

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“The company withheld this information from season pass purchasers so as not to lose season pass customers, or, alternatively, so as not to offer a discount on season passes due to the unavailability of the Steel Curtain.”

The lawsuit also details numerous violations of the state’s unfair trade practices and consumer protection law. This includes failure to disclose the Steel Curtain’s closure with the full knowledge that the consumer believed that it would be functional for the 2024 season.

The park offered varied passes, which ranged from season passes priced from $109.99 to $239.99.

The lowest endowed pass was the bronze pass, which provided unfettered admission except on certain blackout dates.

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The premium range included the platinum pass, which offered year-round admission to Kennywood, Sandcastle, Idlewild, and Palace Entertainment’s Dutch Wonderland in Lancaster.

Additionally, it also offered free parking, discounts on food and retail, and three free guest tickets.

Also Read: Prime Hydration Faces Lawsuits Claiming Its Sports Drink, Prime Energy, Contains PFAS and Excessive Caffeine

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Prime Hydration Faces Lawsuits Claiming Its Sports Drink, Prime Energy, Contains PFAS and Excessive Caffeine

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Prime Hydration

Prime Energy, the sports drink from Prime Hydration, has been hit by a number of lawsuits for containing excessive amounts of caffeine and PFAS. Another lawsuit was filed on April 8 in the Southern District of New York, accusing Prime Hydration, the parent company which manufactures the sports drink, of engaging in misleading and deceptive practices.

Prime Hydration was founded by two Logan Paul and KSI in 2022, and the products became very popular thanks to the huge followings of the YouTubers. However, the company is now facing a slew of lawsuits over the ingredients in their energy and sports drinks.

New Lawsuit Against Prime Hydration

The latest lawsuit, filed on April 8, accuses the company’s 12-ounce energy drinks of containing 215-225 milligrams of caffeine, exceeding the permissible limit of 200 milligrams. The lawsuit was filed by Lara Vera, a resident of Poughkeepsie, New York.

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The lawsuit details that the plaintiff had purchased Prime’s Blue Raspberry products on numerous occasions in August 2022 for about $3 to $4 each, unaware that the products contained caffeine beyond the permissible limits. The plaintiff is seeking damages of $5 million from the company. Lara Vera’s lawsuit alleges that Prime advertised 200 milligrams of caffeine, which is equal to six Coke cans or two 12-ounce Red Bulls. One Red Bull can could contain 114 milligrams of caffeine.

Also Read: Johnson Controls subsidiary Tyco Fire Products to pay $750 mn to settle ‘forever chemicals’ lawsuit

The suit also alleges that there are no safe limits of caffeine for children and that caffeine has been indicted for causing tachycardia, headaches, convulsions, tremors, upset digestion, and adversely affecting mental health.

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Earlier, Senator Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., had asked the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to investigate Prime energy drinks in 2023 after reports that the products contained high levels of caffeine. The Senator also accused the company of using vague marketing tactics focused on young people, influencing parents to buy the caffeine-laced drinks for their kids. The lawsuit by Vera also quotes the Senator’s call to the FDA.

Prime is also facing another lawsuit filed on Aug. 2, 2023, in the Northern District of California by the Milberg law firm on behalf of Elizabeth Castillo and others. The lawsuit charges Prime’s products with using flavors containing PFAS, or “forever chemicals.” Forever chemicals are a class of chemicals that are not degraded in the human body or nature and have been indicted as a carcinogenic substance. Independent third-party testing has confirmed that Prime Hydration grape flavor contained PFAS.

Also Read: California mother files lawsuit against Tesla after her 2-year-old child starts Model X and runs over her

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