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Is it the right time to Buy, Sell or Hold Hindalco’s volatile share price?

Hindalco Industries Ltd, a leading aluminum producer, witnessed a fluctuating share price on Wednesday after posting its December quarter performance. The share price experienced a sharp decline of more than 12% on Tuesday. However, there was a subsequent gain of more than 1% in morning trades on Wednesday.

The company’s consolidated net profit saw a significant 71% year-over-year increase, reaching ₹2,331 crore. Additionally, the consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) rose by 61% year-over-year to ₹6,322 crore, driven by declining input costs and strong performance across all verticals.

Hindalco’s US subsidiary Novelis reported a 33% year-over-year increase in adjusted Ebitda per ton at $499, while the Aluminum Upstream Ebitda rose by 54% year-over-year to ₹2,443 crore. The Copper segment also demonstrated a strong performance with Ebitda at ₹656 crore, marking a 20% year-over-year increase.

However, the stock price dipped significantly due to a 65% increase in the Capex outlay for its key growth project—greenfield expansion in North America—amounting to $4.1 billion. This caused a negative impact on market sentiments.

Several brokerages have provided their insights on Hindalco’s performance. Jefferies India Private Ltd, Nuvama Institutional Equities, MOFSL, and Centrum Broking have all shared their perspectives on the company’s earnings and growth prospects.

While Jefferies has retained a buy rating on Hindalco, Nuvama Institutional Equities and Centrum Broking have adjusted their target prices and ratings based on their assessments of the company’s performance and future outlook.

Analysts at MOFSL have emphasized the impact of ongoing capex in Novelis on Hindalco, citing potential pressure on the company’s cash flow and earnings growth. They have also lowered their forecast for the company’s Ebitda in FY26.

The views and recommendations shared by the brokerages are indicative of the various aspects influencing Hindalco’s stock performance and market dynamics. It is advisable for investors to seek advice from certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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