Connect with us

Business

Why scientists are changing their minds and disagreeing during the coronavirus pandemic

Published

on

Why scientists are changing their minds and disagreeing during the coronavirus pandemic

 

US Surgeon General Jerome Adams holds a face mask during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House on April 22, 2021, in Washington, DC.

MANDEL NGAN

Advertisement

If you’ve tuned into the daily news cycle during the coronavirus pandemic, you’ve probably noticed circumstances where scientists seemed reluctant to share information, debated the latest research on social media or downright changed their views.

In our culture, we often hold politicians, corporate executives and other leaders accountable for the consistency of their positions. In political debates, candidates will often point out on the debate stage that a rival swung to the left or right over a controversial issue. It suggests a lack of authenticity, or even careerism, and indicates that they can’t be trusted to do what’s right for their constituents.

In the scientific world, it’s expected that even the highest-ranking academics will evolve their thinking — and many have done so during this Covid-19 pandemic.

Advertisement

But some scientists fear that the public doesn’t understand this, and is losing faith in scientists who change their minds. And that’s having real consequences on the front lines.

Changing minds on face masks

Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency physician who works at the Rhode Island Hospital, said some patients are coming into her emergency department refusing to wear masks. When she prompted them to wear one, they often told her that public health authorities like the World Health Organization and the CDC initially advised against wearing masks, saying there was little evidence that it would help prevent people from getting sick.

That recommendation later changed, as studies began to show evidence that people with no symptoms might be spreading the disease. Now, both organizations encourage all people in public to wear masks, including cloth-based coverings, to prevent the disease from spreading — exactly what citizens in some countries, like Hong Kong and Japan, had guessed during the early days of the pandemic based on past experiences.

Advertisement

But as Ranney pointed out in an interview with CNBC, it’s “part of the process” that leading public health authorities would adapt their thinking based on new information.

Carl Bergstrom, a biology professor of the University of Washington and an author of a book about misinformation, explained that very little was known about the virus back in January and February. So infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists had to do their best without much data at their fingertips.

Even today, notes Dr. Bergstrom, there isn’t always a clear answer on important metrics like the case fatality rate (Dr. Bergstrom provided a range, when asked about that, and not an exact percentage). Sometimes the only response is “it depends,” or the even less satisfying “we’re still figuring that out.” That can be difficult to hear when the public is searching for answers, and policymakers are looking for clear advice to pass on to their constituents.

Advertisement

“When you take a completely novel virus, you are starting out from a position of by default knowing nothing,” Dr. Bergstrom explained. “You can at best make guesses based on what you know about previous coronaviruses and prior outbreaks of other respiratory viruses.”

As a pandemic progresses, scientists will get more data as more cases occur. “That gives us more time to do basic investigation into the molecular biology of the virus and the interaction between the virus and host,” he explained. “You get more opportunity to watch how transmission works. And you come up with new conclusions based on more evidence, and then you make those public because it’s the best of what you know.”

Others in the community say that it’s even a badge of honor for a scientist to update their thinking when confronted with new evidence. Vinay Prasad, a hematologist-oncologist and Associate Professor of Medicine at the University of California San Francisco, said that best scientists are “continually re-evaluating themselves to see what we got right and what we got wrong.”

Advertisement

As he put it: “It’s a high mark to be able to say, ‘I’m going to change my mind’.”

Peer review in public

With the situation moving so quickly, scientists are rushing to publish papers before they’re peer-reviewed. Those papers are increasingly getting picked apart on social media by communities of their peers — a process that previously would have happened behind closed doors.

The so-called “preprint servers” like bioRxiv and medRxiv feature research that is disseminated far more rapidly than the usual peer-review process, which can take weeks or months. Consumers are now witness to these discussions and occasional fiery disagreements.

Advertisement

One particularly noteworthy debate during this pandemic concerned a group of academics, including Dr. John Ioannides, at Stanford University, who have consistently argued there’s a lack of evidence to support shelter-in-place orders. That same group published research via one of these preprint servers indicating that the virus might be more prevalent than initially believed, and therefore potentially less deadly.

It was pilloried by other scientists on Twitter and other social media platforms and picked apart for the problematic methodologies.

“These discussions used to take place over email or by phone,” Bergstrom said. “Sometimes there are just different groups working on the same problem, but with a different hypothesis or a different theoretical framework,” he added. “So if you see scientists arguing, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone is a bad actor.”

Advertisement

Prasad believes that scientists are right to point out flaws in data or methodology, particularly if the paper has been published in a preprint server or the conclusions that the public are jumping to might be dangerous. But he takes exception with the personal attacks he’s seen on social media.

For consumers without scientific training, he notes, it can be extremely challenging to determine the true experts in a field, especially when a person’s credentials appear to be solid. He suggests looking a researcher’s publication history, but recognizes that not everyone has time to do that.

If you spot scientists disagreeing, he notes, recognize that it’s somewhat normal — especially given that the stakes are so high right now.

Advertisement

“The more eyeballs on the paper, the more likely it is to get critiqued,” he said. “Because of Covid-19, someone has turned up speed on factory line and it’s not pretty sometimes.”

“Science is under pressure and you’re seeing how the sausage is made,” agreed Bergstrom.

Mistakes made

When the worst of the crisis is over, there will certainly be an opportunity to look back and reflect on some of the mistakes that were made along the way.

Advertisement

Dr. Prasad said that the scientific community will likely engage in a process of its own to do just that.

“When the dust settles and we’re a couple of years out, I think it will be a useful exercise to evaluate what we got right. Were they the best policy decisions for the evidence that was available at the time? I don’t think you get off the hook for views that are totally wrong,” he said.

Timothy Caulfield, the Canadian professor of law at the University of Alberta, differentiates between cases where a scientist changes their mind based on new data, and circumstances where someone misrepresented their work, or falsified data.

Advertisement

If it’s an inadvertent error, he explained, the research should be retracted with an explanation of the issue, and that should be recirculated to the public. “With so much pressure to move quickly, mistakes seem likely to happen — particularly in preprints. So the scientific community and the media need to take great care in how all of this is reported,” he said.

Caulfield notes that policy-decisions are changing, but that doesn’t mean that public health shouldn’t be trusted.

He describes the the policy around masks specifically as a “profound communication challenge.”

Advertisement

“Public health sometimes need to adopt positions, even if the evidence isn’t robust,” he said. “And from a policy perspective, those positions need to be championed.”

“But that doesn’t mean that the scientific community should stop talking about the evidence,” he added. “You don’t want to discourage open, honest debate.”

 

Advertisement

(Note: This is a Article Automatically Generated Through Syndication, Here is The Original Source

2 Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

World

More Trouble For Microsoft, OpenAI: Eight US Newspaper Publishers File Lawsuit For Copyright Infringement

Published

on

More Trouble For Microsoft, OpenAI: Eight US Newspaper Publishers File Lawsuit For Copyright Infringement

Trouble for Microsoft and OpenAI over copyright infringement is not coming to an end, as they face several lawsuits for violating copyrights.

On Tuesday, eight US newspaper publishers sued Microsoft for illegally reusing articles in AI products.

The 98-page long lawsuit further accused the tech companies of attributing erroneous information to the publishers.

Advertisement

The eight newspapers that have filed the lawsuits include the New York Daily News and the Chicago Tribune.

They allege that OpenAI’s ChatGPT used their copyrighted articles to perfect its language models without permission.

The lawsuit was filed in a New York federal court on Tuesday. The publishers claim that OpenAI’s large language models, GPT-2 and GPT-3, were perfected using datasets containing text from their newspapers.

Advertisement

The language models are designed to produce text based on human inputs and reproduce copies of the publishers’ works. Microsoft has been indicted for using newspapers for its Bing search index but seldom provided links to the original articles. Four months ago, The New York Times also filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, accusing the tech giant of using data from its past content. It also asked for consent for usage, criticizing the use of full article excerpts in chatbot responses.

The latest lawsuit filed by the eight news outlets also demanded consent and fair value for using their content to perfect the AI language models. The lawsuit alleged that the AI tools literally regurgitate their content without directing users to the content source.

The lawsuit filings stated, “This lawsuit arises from defendants purloining millions of the publishers’ copyrighted articles without permission and without payment to fuel the commercialization of their generative artificial intelligence products, including ChatGPT and (Microsoft’s) Copilot.”

Advertisement

The eight newspapers that instituted the lawsuits are as follows:

  • The New York Daily News and The Chicago Tribune, both owned by Alden Global Capital
  • The Orlando Sentinel
  • The Sun Sentinel
  • The San Jose Mercury News
  • The Denver Post
  • The Orange County Register
  • The St. Paul Pioneer Press

OpenAI’s Response

OpenAI did not directly respond to the accusations but stated that it takes great care to support the news and media outlets. It also stated it is in continuous partnerships and conversations with various news outlets around the world to explore new opportunities, discuss problems, and seek out solutions.

Microsoft also stated that OpenAI has entered into fruitful partnerships with a number of publishers, which includes The Financial Times, The Associated Press, Spanish conglomerate Prisa Media, and Germany’s Axel Springer.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Net Worth

Alan Patricof Net Worth 2024: How Much is the American Investor Worth?

Published

on

Alan Patricof Net Worth 2024: How Much is the American Investor Worth?

Who is Alan Patricof?

Alan Patricof is a prominent figure in the American investment landscape, renowned for his contributions to venture capital. With a career spanning over four decades, Patricof has been instrumental in shaping the growth of numerous global companies, including America Online, Apple Computer, and Audible. His legacy extends beyond business, with involvement in community organizations and government initiatives.

Alan Patricof Career

Alan Patricof’s career in venture capital began in the industry’s early days. He founded Patricof & Co. Ventures Inc., a precursor to Apax Partners, one of the world’s leading private equity firms. Later, he established Greycroft Partners, focusing on early and expansion-stage investments in digital media. Throughout his career, Patricof’s vision and leadership have played a pivotal role in advancing the venture capital field.

Alan Patricof’s Net Worth

As of May 3, 2024, Alan Patricof’s estimated net worth stands at over $1 million. His wealth is derived from various investments, including holdings in Boston Properties Inc. and successful ventures in digital media. Despite humble beginnings, Patricof’s entrepreneurial spirit and strategic acumen have propelled him to financial success.

Advertisement

Alan Patricof Age

Born in 1934, Alan Patricof is currently in his late eighties. Despite his advanced age, he remains active in the business world, leveraging his wealth of experience to mentor emerging entrepreneurs and drive innovation.

Alan Patricof Family: Wife and Children

Alan Patricof has been married to his wife Susan for over 48 years. Together, they have three children and seven grandchildren. Family holds great importance to Patricof, and he credits his upbringing and heritage for shaping his values and work ethic.

Alan Patricof Height and Weight

While specific details about Alan Patricof’s height and weight are not readily available, his stature in the investment community is undeniable. Patricof’s impact transcends physical measurements, as he continues to leave a lasting legacy in venture capital and philanthropy.

Advertisement

Also Read: Mike Markkula Net Worth 2024: How Much is the Former CEO of Apple Worth?

Continue Reading

Net Worth

Stephen M. Ross Net Worth 2024: How Much is the Chairperson of The Related Companies Worth?

Published

on

Stephen M. Ross Net Worth 2024: How Much is the Chairperson of The Related Companies Worth?

Who is Stephen M. Ross?

Stephen M. Ross, the Chairperson of The Related Companies, is a distinguished figure in the real estate sector, renowned for his significant contributions and profound impact. Born on May 10th, 1940, in Detroit, Michigan, Ross embarked on his journey into real estate at a young age, demonstrating remarkable diligence and entrepreneurial spirit. Despite initially pursuing a career as a tax attorney, Ross soon discovered his genuine passion for real estate investment, laying the foundation for his illustrious career.

Stephen M. Ross Career

Ross’s career trajectory is marked by pioneering ventures and transformative projects. In 1972, he founded The Related Companies, which initially focused on subsidized low and moderate-income apartments. Over the years, Ross transitioned to higher-profile projects, including the iconic Hudson Yards development, valued at over $7 billion. His visionary approach and strategic partnerships have cemented his reputation as a prominent figure within the real estate industry.

Stephen M. Ross Net Worth

As of 2024, according to Celebrity Net Worth, Stephen M. Ross’s net worth stands at an impressive $10 billion, solidifying his status as one of the wealthiest individuals globally. Ross’s wealth accumulation is attributed to his unparalleled success as a real estate mogul, with an estimated annual income of nearly $700 million derived from royalties on his diverse property holdings. His continued involvement in the real estate sector, with ongoing projects in New Jersey and Florida, further contributes to his substantial net worth.

Advertisement

Stephen M. Ross Age

Currently, Stephen M. Ross is 83 years old, born on May 10th, 1940. Despite his age, Ross remains actively engaged in his professional pursuits, demonstrating resilience and dedication to his craft.

Stephen M. Ross Family: Wife and Children

Ross’s personal life is characterized by familial bonds and enduring relationships. He is happily married to Kara Ross and is the proud father of four children. Ross’s commitment to family values underscores his holistic approach to life and business.

Stephen M. Ross Height and Weight

Physically, Stephen M. Ross stands at a height of 6 feet 2 inches (1.88m) and maintains a healthy body weight of around 72 kg. Despite his busy schedule, Ross prioritizes his health and well-being, engaging in activities such as volleyball and tennis.

Advertisement

Also Read: Dave Ramsey Net Worth 2024: How Much is American Radio Personality Worth?

Continue Reading

Trending

This will close in 5 seconds